Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
