Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
